ecological security pattern, ecosystem service supply and demand, circuit theory, ssp-rcp scenarios, yangtze river delta, Physical geography, GB3-5030

The identification of ecological security pattern(ESP) is of great significance in solving regional ecological security problems. The study proposes two new perspectives for the study of ESP Firstly, a new method for identifying ecological supply and demand areas based on the ratio of ecosystem service supply and demand is proposed; The second is to combine socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios to predict the future supply and demand of regional ecosystem services under different climate scenarios, and to further predict the future regional ESPs under different climate scenarios. Finally, A planning proposal based on ESP of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) based on the supply and demand perspective was put forward, with ‘two belts-four zones’. The results show that the ESP changes significantly under different climate scenarios, and the ecological demands under the three scenarios continue to increase during the study period.