Background/Aims Anti-mitochondrial M2 antibody (AMA-M2) is a specific marker for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and it could be also present in non-PBC individuals. Methods A total of 72,173 Chinese health check-up individuals tested AMA-M2, of which non-PBC AMA-M2 positive individuals were performed follow-up. Baseline data of both clinical characteristics and laboratory examinations were collected in all AMA-M2-positive individuals. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to investigate the potential variables for developing PBC. Results A total of 2,333 individuals were positive with AMA-M2. Eighty-two individuals had a medical history of PBC or fulfilled the diagnostic criteria of PBC at baseline, and 2,076 individuals were non-PBC. After a median follow-up of 6.6 years, 0.6% developed PBC, with an accumulative 5-year incidence rate of 0.5%. LASSO regression showed that levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), immunoglobulin M (IgM), eosinophilia proportion (EOS%), gamma globulin percentage, and hemoglobin (HGB) were potential variables for developing PBC. Multivariate Cox regression is used to construct a predictive model based on 7 selected variables, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the area under the curve of the prediction model at 3, 5, and 10 years were, respectively, 1.000, 0.875, and 0.917. Conclusions This study offers insights into the onset of PBC among individuals who tested positive for AMA-M2 during routine health check-ups. The prediction model based on ALP, GGT, IgM, EOS%, gamma globulin percentage, HGB, and sex has a certain predictive ability for the occurrence of PBC in this population.