Peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis, risk factors, cardiovascular events, nomogram, Diseases of the genitourinary system. Urology, RC870-923

Objective To predict the risk factors for cardiovascular events within 5 years in patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis and establish a nomogram for clinical prediction.Methods A prediction model was established by conducting an observational study in 150 patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis obtained from the Information Database of AnHui Medical University Affiliated Hospital. The nomogram was constructed using the multivariate COX regression model. The C-index and the calibration plot were used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the prediction model.Results The elderly [HR = 2.453 (1.071–5.619)], history of cardiovascular events [HR = 2.296 (1.220–4.321)], alkaline phosphatase [HR = 1.004 (1.002–1.005)] and culture-positive [HR= 2.173 (1.009–4.682)] were identified as risk predictors of cardiovascular events, while serum albumin [HR = 0.396(0.170–0.924)] was identified as protective predictors of cardiovascular events. Combined with clinical studies, we constructed a nomogram based on the minimum value of the Akaike Information Criterion or Bayesian Information Criterion. The C index of the nomogram is 0.732, revealing great discrimination and appropriate calibration. Through the total score of the nomogram and the result of ROC, we classify patients into high-risk groups (cardiovascular events group) and low-risk groups (no cardiovascular events group). Cardiovascular events were significantly different for patients in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (HR = 3.862(2.202–6.772; p