Abstract Effective watershed management hinges on understanding water sources and pollution origins. In the Hangbu Watershed of Chaohu Lake, China, we analyze pollution source patterns and propose an adaptive strategy. This adaptive strategy is defined as a flexible and dynamic approach that adjusts management practices and policies in response to evolving environmental conditions and emerging data on pollution sources. The analysis includes examining the trends, periodicity, and mutagenicity of pollution sources. The results demonstrated substantial variations in sources, with nitrogen and phosphorus. The adaptive approach enables prioritizing crucial pollution sources, with farmland identified as a significant contributor under varying conditions. Specific pollution sources with growth trends and control robustness have been recognized as vital contributors, even though their contributions to the nitrogen and phosphorus flux at the watershed outlets may not be the most prominent. The results of this study could guide the sustainable management of watersheds.