Abstract Global warming is increasing compound drought and heatwave events. This elevates vegetation loss probability. Despite spatial shifts in vegetation loss probability being crucial for predicting spatial redistribution patterns of vegetation vulnerability across terrestrial ecosystems, they remain poorly understood under compound drought and heatwave events. In this study, using a vine copula model, vegetation loss probability was quantified under compound drought and heatwave events. Spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability were examined using the concept of velocity change. Spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability would undergo substantial increase based on the satellite observations and future simulations. However, vegetation resistance to droughts buffers spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability (p