Triglyceride glucose index, Triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, Cox regression model, Pre-diabetes, Diabetes, Fasa Persian cohort study, Nutritional diseases. Deficiency diseases, RC620-627, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270

Abstract Background The triglyceride glucose (TyG) and triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-c) are the indices that can predict the progression of pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to examine the relationship between TyG and TG/HDL-c indices with the incidence of T2DM in pre-diabetes patients. Methods A total of 758 pre-diabetic patients aged 35–70 years who were enrolled in a prospective Fasa Persian Adult Cohort were followed up for 60 months. TyG and TG/HDL-C indices were obtained at baseline data and divided into quartiles. The 5-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis while controlling for baseline covariates. Results During 5 years of follow-up, there were 95 incident cases of T2DM, with an overall incidence rate of 12.53%. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking, marital status, socioeconomic status, body mass index, waist circumference, hip circumference, hypertension, total cholesterol, and dyslipidemia, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) demonstrated that patients with the highest TyG and TG/HDL-C indices quartile were at higher risk of T2DM (HR = 4.42, 95%CI 1.75–11.21) and (HR = 2.15, 95%CI 1.04–4.47), respectively, compared to participants in the lowest quartile. As the quantiles of these indices increase, the HR value shows a significant increment (P