input–output method, economic contribution, Xiamen Port, ARIMA model, prediction, Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering, VM1-989, Oceanography, GC1-1581

Ports play a vital role in the development of cities. In order to study the contribution of seaports to the urban economy, this paper uses the input–output method and multiplier theory to calculate the direct, indirect, and ripple economic contribution of ports to cities. Then, this paper selects Xiamen Port as an example to calculate the economic contribution. Xiamen Port is a major port on the southeast coast of China and an important node of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. It can provide a reference for other port cities. A more detailed index system for evaluating the economic contribution is also constructed. Next, the time series ARIMA model is used to predict the cargo throughput and container throughput of Xiamen Port in the next four years. Finally, there are some suggestions put forward for the development of Xiamen Port. The results show the total economic contribution of Xiamen Port to the city accounted for 10.48% of the city’s GDP in 2017. Direct, indirect, and ripple economic contributions accounted for 2.84%, 2.13%, and 5.51%, respectively. The contribution of Xiamen Port to the city is in line with the growth pole theory, which not only allows for rapid growth in Xiamen Port itself but also drives the development of the entire region through the multiplier effect. The cargo throughput and container throughput of Xiamen Port will maintain continuous growth in the next four years. Therefore, the development of Xiamen Port should be accelerated to enhance its economic contribution to the city.