Recent studies have identified many potential climate change impacts on bridges. Considering the sheer number of these potential impacts, ho
Recent studies have identified many potential climate change impacts on bridges. Considering the sheer number of these potential impacts, how can a bridge owner prioritise which impacts to consider, and for which bridges? This paper proposes a risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for systematically addressing these two questions simultaneously. The proposed method can be used to address both extreme and non-extreme impacts as opposed to focussing solely on extreme impacts as has been done in previous prioritisation studies related to climate change risks. The proposed method is based on four main components of risk: hazard, impact, vulnerability and consequences. Several indices characterising these components are used to address the previous two questions. To reflect the uncertainty in the analysis, the different indices are assessed optimistically and pessimistically. Additionally, to ensure a more transparent decision-making process the inclusion of a strength of evidence assessment is also proposed. The applicability of the method is then demonstrated on three illustrative case studies for three different potential climate change impacts. It is concluded that the proposed method is both feasible and appropriately fulfils its purpose. Nevertheless, the proposed method should be more elaborately tested on practical bridge case studies to further establish its applicability.
Lund University, Faculty of Engineering, LTH, Departments at LTH, Department of Building and Environmental Technology, Division of Structural Engineering, Lunds universitet, Lunds Tekniska Högskola, Institutioner vid LTH, Institutionen för bygg- och miljöteknologi, Avdelningen för Konstruktionsteknik, Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Engineering, LTH, Departments at LTH, Department of Building and Environmental Technology, Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Lunds universitet, Lunds Tekniska Högskola, Institutioner vid LTH, Institutionen för bygg- och miljöteknologi, Avdelningen för Riskhantering och Samhällssäkerhet, Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Engineering, LTH, Departments at LTH, Department of Construction Sciences, Building Science, Lunds universitet, Lunds Tekniska Högskola, Institutioner vid LTH, Institutionen för byggvetenskaper, Byggnadskonstruktion, Originator